This article appeared earlier on www.businesstrendsasia.com
The demonstrations in Bangkok of Saturday, 10 April, 2010, during which 25 people died, caught the attention of the global media. The violence made international headlines but has not put a stop to the demonstrations nor have the Red Shirts (Thaksin supporters) left the capital. But the Bangkok demonstrations form just the tip of the iceberg of the power shift taking place in the country.
All over the Central, North and Northeast part of the country have the supporters of Thaksin, united under the UDD-banner (United front of Democracy against Dictatorship) and characterized by their red shirt outfits, taken control of provincial and municipal institutions, blocking any communication from the Thai government and effectively taken power from the central government who has lost control of the country outside Bangkok and the South.
Rumours about HM the King fuel further unrest. He remains in Siriraj hospital in Bangkok since fallen ill late-2009 and is completely shielded from the public. Prime-Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is rumoured to have asked the King to leave for the royal residence in Hua Hin where the king has lived for the past years. HM the King has supposedly refused to leave the Bangkok hospital as he feels this would lead to his immediate death. However the actual status of his health remains a closely guarded secret of which the public at large has no knowledge. Should the King still be alive and able to communicate he could reassume his mediating role.
On the other hand many UDD supporters believe the monarchy is not on their side but part of the "other camp", the so-called Yellow Shirts (yellow is the colour of the Thai monarchy), and would no longer accept HM the King as a non-partisan mediator nor accept his judgement anymore. The feeling that the King and the royal family have actively taken sides against them creates a feeling of "nothing left to lose" among the UDD supporters, diminishing the stabilizing capabilities of the king during times of turmoil.
Another rumoured twist sees the "devious" genius of Privy Councillor, and close friend of the king, Prem Tinsulanonda, as a master puppet player despite his well advanced age. Apparently Prem is supposed to have obtained documents signed by HM the King and foreseen with the Royal Garuda seal in which all the king's powers have been assigned to him and that he is now in full control of the monarchy.
The Bangkok demonstrations are just the outer symptoms of a massive power struggle among Thailand's elite whereby the winner will be awarded with the ultimate price i.e. full control of the country.
It still remains possible that Thailand will turn into another Burma !
