The Future of ASEAN

Ambassadors to the Netherlands of Lao People's Democratic Republic, 

Indonesia and Thailand attended ICAD 2016 

On 3 September 2016, I was one of the speakers at the International Conference on ASEAN Development (ICAD) at Leiden University. Goal of the 2016 edition of ICAD was, as stated by its organizers PPI Belanda (Indonesian Student Association in The Netherlands), “to build a bridge between the EU and ASEAN and to learn from the EU in the fields of Law, Politics, Economics, Culture and Technology for a deeper integration and development of ASEAN”.

Although my speech focused on economic parallels between the EU and ASEAN, whereby economic integration in the fields of trade and investment and economic  disparity of its member states were highlighted, it struck me that my fellow speakers as well as the audience at the Conference were quite sceptical on the (future) achievements of ASEAN. They did not have much confidence in ASEAN gradually assuming a leading, both political and economic, role in the region and beyond. The Conference’s audience was made up of approximately 120 Indonesian students, pursuing Bachelor-, Master-, and PhD-degrees in The Netherlands and other EU countries, representing the around 1500 Indonesian higher education students in The Netherlands and over 5000 in Europe. 

Recent surveys held in Indonesia and neighbouring countries show that the “awareness” of ASEAN is increasing. In addition to large multinational companies, now also SMEs and individual entrepreneurs are seriously eyeing cross-border opportunities . However, apparently, there is still quite a large number of young people in the region that are hesitant when it comes to truely believing in the concept of ASEAN. The Indonesian students who attended ICAD 2016 pointed out the economic disparity between ASEAN member states and the unwillingness, or incapability, of showing leadership and decisiveness.




I am far most optimistic than some of these Indonesian students and strongly believe that ASEAN will in due course develop into a powerful union. But ASEAN will have to do it the Asian way, looking at the EU for some guidance, in particular from an institutional perspective. Jakarta could become a kind of Brussels, but nevertheless assume its own definition of a central role. Where the EU is struggling to keep its member states on board and is having a hard time enforcing agreements on them, politically as well as economically, ASEAN will work out its own way of dealing with geo-politcal and geo-economic issues. This may be regarded as being indecisive, but quick decisions and agreements without true support lack  credibility. The monetary crisis, the refugee crisis, the Brexit, are all examples how NOT to deal with political, economic and humanitarian issues.

As I said earlier, from an institutional perspective and as far as intra-union trade is concerned, the EU is a good example. ASEAN can definately learn from the EU how to better “organize” its institutions and how to boost intra-ASEAN  trade and investment. But as far as aligning individual member states on common (?) political and economic (monetary) challenges, ASEAN should create its own framework, whereby initial disparity between member states may not necessarliy be an obstacle. However, its geo-political and geo-economic balancing act is even more delicate than Europe’s. ASEAN is embarking on a cautious and careful course whereby a non-confrontational approach will prove to be far more effective than going head-to-head on matters of national interest or on geo-political sensitivities. 

Will this road be a mere “walk in the park”?  Definately not, ASEAN will stumble every now and then, face set-backs occasionally. It is a complex journey.  As in Europe, ultra-nationalism and populism are also on the rise in Southeast Asia. National governments will have to explain policies in a convincing way in order to avoid xenophobia coming along with migration. There is bilateral friction between member states. Philippine newspaper, The Inquier, as well as the Japan Times, this week expressed their concern on the political indecisiveness of ASEAN. Both articles referred to the ASEAN meeting in Vientiane, Laos, last week, where ASEAN failed to take a firm stance against China’s interference in the South China Sea. The articles questioned China’s commitment to ASEAN’s Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and the international ruling of the arbitral court of the UN Convention of the Law and the Sea (UNCLOS).  Concluding  the meeting in Vientiane, ASEAN failed to align all member states to issue a joint statement in which it would stand up to China in this maritime conflict.

And how to deal with “different leadership styles”, to put it euphemistically in the case of Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, for example ? Are the rulers in these member states a threat to the cohesion within ASEAN ? They could be, although their unpredictable, radical way of governing their countries may have a greater effect on their relationship with the "international community" in the West, than on their dealings with neighbouring states in Asia.

These are all enormous challenges that ASEAN faces, I have to admit. But the outcome of the Laos meeting is no surprise to me as ASEAN will have to perform a balancing act between being friend or ally with China, and/or with the so-called “international community”. Earlier I mentioned the “Asian way”: addressing regional conflicts or interfering in eachother’s national affairs will not be done “bluntly”. A quick solution putting a superficial plaster on wounds, will not be the way ASEAN will resolve its problems. Complex problems will have to be tackled by means of bilateral talks between individual member states on various levels of government.

Winning the hearts & minds

In this second decade of the twenty-first century, China has become a superpower. In particular, in the last 10 years, the country has established itself firmly in the global political and economic arena. Was it Europe that dominated the world in the 19th Century and the U.S. in the 20th Century, this new era may well be China’s !

Geopolitically and geoeconomically, China is making its presence felt in the region and in the rest of the world. Numerous acquisitions in Europe and the U.S., economic expansion into Africa and, of course, trade and investment in its own “backyard”, Asia. 

The One Belt, One Road initiative, the “claiming” of territories in the South China Sea, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), its prominent role in the recent Paris Climate Conference, are all signals that China is not only spreading its wings economically but also politically. China is letting the world know that the days that Western nations solely dominated the political and economic agenda are over. 

However, China faces a tough battle. Although large parts of the world do turn away from Western influence, whether in Africa or in Asia, this does not mean that China is automatically embraced as the replacing superpower. Just as the U.S. is struggling with “winning the hearts & minds” in large parts of the world, China is having to deal with this on maybe an even larger scale. Where the U.S. at least has loyal Europe unconditionally on its side, China is having a hard time lining up “allies” even within Asia. Whether historically-determined, or driven by more recent events, China’s gesture of goodwill is not seldom met with a lukewarm response. 

It takes more than just money and know-how to be accepted by the world as a leading superpower. In the years to come, China will have to work hard on “winning the hearts & minds” of other nations in Asia and in the rest of the world.

This article appeared earlier in e-magazine Business Trends Asia  

Getting to Belitung Island

H.A.S. Hanandjoeddin Aiport

In2008, relatively unknown Pulau Belitung off the coast of Southeast Sumatra gained instant fame with the Indonesian box office hit “Laskar Pelangi”. The movie pictures a group of young boys coming of age on the island. Millions of Indonesians embraced the movie and since then, domestic tourism, primarily comprising ethnic-Chinese from Jakarta, has surged dramatically.

The island attracted curious visitors once more when East-Belitung-born Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, better known as Ahok, rose from Deputy-Governor under current-President Joko Widodo to Governor of Jakarta in 2014. Several middle-class hotels and the occasional upmarket hotel have sprung up in the captital town of West-Belitung, Tanjung Pandan, from which pristine beaches along the Northwestern coast and numerous tiny islands off the Northwest tip of the island can easily be reached.

Belitung Island (residents pronounce it as Belitong), which, together with neighbouring Bangka Island, makes up Bangka-Belitung Province, was named after Dutch Mining Company, Billiton. While the island is less suitable for rice farming, it is rich on tin and agriculture consists of pepper, coffee and rubber, among other crops.

With approximately 275,000 inhabitants, the 5,000 sq.km.- island is sparsely populated (in comparison with the island of Bali which is slightly bigger but houses over 4 million people !). Belitung's population forms a harmonious mix of ethnic-Chinese, who, contrary to their fellow-countrymen in Java (mostly Christian), are primarily Bhuddist here, Muslims and even Hindus, who left the island of Bali and came to Belitung as a result of former-President Suharto’s“transmigrasi”- policy. Their dessa in the heart of the island is called“Balitung”. The dialect spoken on Belitung is Melayu (Malay).

Photo taken from lighthouse on Lengkuas Island

The island’s marvelous white-sand beaches and off-coast rocks and islets are not only stunning, but also quiet and peaceful as a result of tourism still being in its infancy. Flights tot the island are limited; several times daily from Jakarta (45 minutes), while NAM Air connects the island with Pankal Pinang on neighbouring Bangka. 

This article appeared earlier in e-magazine Business Trends Asia